Ophelia (002456) performance preview comment-replace the reorganized touch business optical module leader to grow again
The company is a well-known enterprise in the field of domestic consumer electronics. In 2019, it will repeatedly break through the touch display business and focus on the main optical industry.
In 2020, optical innovation will continue, and the company’s performance will continue to rebound, maintaining the “overweight” level.
Event: The company releases the 2019 annual performance forecast, and it is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers will reach 4.
50,000 to 60,000 yuan, of which part of the equity of the transfer of the subsidiary reached 1.
1 trillion, based on the central 2 trillion is expected to deduct non-attributed net profit is 2.
From 50,000 to 40,000 yuan, compared with the reversed loss in 2018, it is a surplus. From this, we comment as follows: The separation of the touch display 天津夜网 business effectively reduced losses, and the date of state-owned assets eased the pressure on the capital side.
In 2018, as the external touch-sensitive display products laid out by the company were replaced by incell / oncell technology, the company accrued correspondingly a decline in inventory prices and bad debt losses of accounts receivable totaling 18.
40,000 yuan, resulting in an increase in 2018 performance.
Since 2019, the company has gradually stripped non-A-end touch display related businesses, mainly corresponding to Anhui Jingzhuo Light Display Technology Company. After the replacement, the company and its subsidiaries will hold a total of 48 of them.
12% of the shares are no longer within the scope of the consolidated statement.
Shortening potential contacts with significant businesses will help the company focus on its main optical business, while helping 杭州夜网论坛 its performance recover.
In addition, due to the conflict of funding pressure caused by the previous expansion, the company and its subsidiaries dated to state-owned shareholders in 2019. It is estimated that the total transfer price will be nearly US $ 6 billion, which will effectively alleviate the funding pressure and facilitate the company’s subsequent financing business.
Focus on optical main business, camera module, fingerprint recognition, smart car to help grow.
After the company divested the touch display business, it will further focus on optical services such as cameras, fingerprint recognition, and automotive.
(1) Camera business: The company is the first echelon in China, with a single-camera production capacity of 35kk / month, dual-camera 20kk / month, and three-camera 5kk / month. It is expected to achieve approximately 30 billion revenue in 2019.
Looking forward to 2020, the penetration rate of three cameras and above is expected to exceed +20 pcts to about 40%. Three cameras and four cameras have increased several times compared to dual cameras. The company is one of the few domestic manufacturers with high-end multi-camera production capabilities.Business continues to grow rapidly; (2) Fingerprint identification business: The company is the first to enter the field of under-screen optics. It is expected that the module transportation volume will exceed 100 million units in 2019, and the domestic city share is expected to reach more than 60%.
At the same time, the company also has a layout under the ultra-thin screen. At present, it has exclusively released the fingerprint module under the ultra-thin screen.
In the future, the improvement of internal integration of 5G mobile phones will drive ultra-thin penetration, and the company will benefit; (3) Automotive business: The company’s leading layout involves businesses including ADAS, automotive cameras, etc., with revenue of 200 million in 2018, accounting for 0.
87%, the proportion of future revenue is expected to gradually increase.
Deeply plowing the optical track, horizontally extending the 3D sensing layout, and vertically expanding the upstream lens business.
3Dsings: It is expected that high-end flagship phones will accelerate the introduction of rear ToF in 2020, and the delivery volume will increase by + 260% to 90 million units.
The company has integrated the production capacity of 3D structured light and ToF modules. The Android-based ToF module has been mass-produced and converted. The A client may also be introduced on the basis of the single-shot, rear dual-shot, and 3D structured light-receiving module business.Its ToF module business.
Lens business: At the end of 2018, the company strengthened the patent layout of mobile phone lenses by acquiring assets such as Fuji Tianjin. It is expected that the current production capacity will be 30kk / month, and it will reach 50kk / month in 2020. The revenue is estimated to be about 800 million in 2019 and is expected to double in 2020.
Risk factors: The industry demand is lower than expected, the core client revenue is lower than expected, intensified competition leads to drift in gross profit margin, and the consumer electronics industry continues to decline.
Investment suggestion: The company is a domestic consumer electronics optical module leader. After replacing the tactile business, it will focus on the main optical industry.
Optical innovations such as multi-shot, 3Dsensing, and under-screen fingerprints continue, and the company’s performance is expected to pick up.
According to the company’s performance, we will lower the EPS forecast for 2019 accordingly, and we are optimistic about the recovery in 2020, so the EPS forecast for 2019/2020/2021 is 0.
80 yuan (previous forecast was 0.
54 yuan), giving 35 times PE in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 20.
35 yuan to maintain the “overweight” level.